The enrollment cliff has long loomed in the minds of higher education leaders anticipating that a sharp decline in the number of incoming students starting around 2025 could spell disaster for their institutions’ bottom line.
And a lesser discussed — but equally concerning — enrollment cliff is potentially emerging within the K-12 education sector. While colleges are seeing the dip in large part because of the questioned value of degrees, the K-12 space is facing a perfect storm of factors that some experts believe will create a new, diminished normal.
A declining birth rate, coupled with a loss in federal funds, an uptick in homeschooling, and murky immigration policy, could cause public schools to close in many parts of the country. Officials are worried this will have greater consequences than simply boarding up physical school buildings.
“You don’t have to go very far to see many schools are struggling with reduced enrollments,” says Thomas Dee, an educational economist and professor at Stanford Graduate School of Education. “And many communities are starting painful discussions of closing schools.”
Birth Rate Bust
Both K-12 enrollment and the birth rate have been steadily dipping over the last decade. The birth rate began its decline around the 2008 recession, seeing a small spike post-COVID but ultimately creating a “birth dearth,” where the number of children being born in the U.S. will not replace the number of people dying.
Some argue the birth rate decline is overstated. Nathan Grawe, a professor of economics at Minnesota-based Carleton College, says it is simply getting on par with that of other developed nations.
“We were well above the replacement rate; Europe and Japan were already at the place we’re at now,” he says. “With a rebound, it’s getting back to ‘normal,’ but I’m not sure if what we’re experiencing is the new normal.”
But, he adds, having fewer students to draw from to fill classrooms could put a strain on schools.
“One of the things we have to remember is schools have large, fixed costs: They have buildings that have to be maintained, and when the number of students fall, those costs don’t go away,” Grawe says. “In my state, we see a fair number of schools grappling with budget cuts as they foresee changes in the next five years.”
The dip in enrollment is more complicated than families simply having fewer children. During the COVID-19 pandemic starting in 2020, schools saw large swaths of families leaving either for private school or homeschooling alternatives, or moving out of state.
“That 2020-2021 school year, parents — especially of young children — drove away from schools,” Dee says. “In subsequent research I expected those families to return and thought there might be a crowding into kindergarten or first grade. But they by and large did not return, and to this day have not returned.”
Looking ahead, the National Center for Education Statistics estimates that K-12 enrollment will drop by another 2.7 million students by the 2031-2032 school year. Some states, including California, New York, and New Mexico, are projected to lose more than 10 percent of student enrollment.
The loss of students is coupled with a rise in chronic absenteeism, where enrolled students don’t attend class. And the recent uptick in immigration raids across the country also has prompted some students to stay home or find alternative education pathways. Both current and future enrollment is particularly important for school districts’ budgets, as many receive funding that is directly correlated to students in desks.
The potential disappearance of those funds compounds the loss of U.S. Department of Education dollars allocated during the pandemic, best known as ESSER funds. The expiration of ESSER has prompted some schools to cut staff jobs and edtech spending.
“Overall, states and cities are also cutting education budgets, and with the federal Department of Education being dismantled, it will put greater strain on cities and have them check their budgets,” says Sweta Shah, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, a think tank focused on policy issues.
The overall lack of funds could ultimately bring staff and teacher layoffs, which could ironically lead to larger class sizes. Eventually, entire schools could shutter.
The Denver Public School System, for example, will close seven schools by the end of this academic year and restructure three more. The Common Sense Institute recently released a study focused on the intersection of those closed schools with the declining birth rate.
“Seeing schools in Colorado shut down was pretty alarming to me,” says Caitlin McKennie, director of research at the Common Sense Institute. “There are going to be very significant repercussions from all this happening; this is something that is going to be a big issue and I don’t see it going away.”
For instance, she explains, “K-12 is one of the most important parts of our economy.”
Schools function as an employer to teachers and staff; as a talent pipeline for nearby employers; and as a major consideration for families looking to move to the area.
“Good public schools are investments in economic prosperity of the current moment and the future,” Stanford’s Dee says. “I worry for communities that have to close schools. It can create a kind of cycle that reinforces that economic decline.”
Schools also support the overall well-being of children, their families and their neighbors.
“I think a loss of a school in a community can actually weaken connections within that community,” Shah says. “[Schools are] a wonderful place where community members can connect, build relationships, and it creates a sense of community; everyone comes together for their kids. In that context, if a school was central and closed down, that can affect things.”
Future Planning
Debate is ongoing about how to best increase the U.S. birth rate, with the current federal administration proposing a $5,000 baby bonus that failed to pass, now countering with a $1,000 “Trump Account” for first-time parents.
Economists, educators and demographers vary in their level of concern about the broader ramifications of the birth rate. However, most interviewed by EdSurge believe schools — or lawmakers — need to start addressing the issue now, to take a proactive approach.
”Closing schools is really going to make huge impacts on our economy and we have to start planning for how to cope with this trend,” McKennie says. “Especially making sure K-12 and higher ed continue to thrive, because those are two of the biggest, important factors in our economy.”
Others point toward universal pre-K as a potential answer, even if that does come with its own problems.
“I do want to stress there is one potentially responsive policy that's a bank shot in supporting academic and financial viability of school districts, and that is expanding publicly funded pre-K,” Dee says. “It’s a way to create some potential stickiness in enrollment for school districts as well as support learning opportunities among the age groups most affected.”
Some experts believe just looking at budget bottom lines now will help.
“The K-12 system is left in a situation where they really are a bit exposed to the changes in the population, as the population of children declines,” Grawe says. “But the notion that schools can't manage to deal with a 15 percent decline seems overstated. It’s a problem to be worked, looking at where we need [staff] positions, where we might not need positions. It’s always going to be better if you're working ahead of the problem versus after the fact.”
